If it feels like the world is in turmoil right now, you’re not alone. From economic instability to geopolitical tensions, and from technological disruptions to cultural shifts, it’s hard to shake the sense that something big is happening—and that no one’s explaining what it is. Amid all this chaos, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: artificial intelligence (AI) is at the center of this storm, reshaping global power in ways that feel both transformative and destabilizing.
To make sense of it all, I think about Quest for Fire—that 1981 film about humanity’s discovery of how to control fire. It’s a perfect metaphor for what’s happening with AI today. Fire, when controlled, was a tool of progress, but it also carried the risk of destruction if mishandled. And just like fire, AI is a force that’s both transformative and deeply challenging. The way we wield it could define the next chapter of human history.
1. A World in Chaos: The AI "Arms Race"
To understand the chaos, it helps to think of AI as the new fire—something that every major power in the world is scrambling to control, but in very different ways.
China’s Strategy:
China has been aggressively releasing open-source AI tools, like DeepSeek's R1, Alibaba's Qwen 2.5-Max, and Huawei's PanGu 5.0, (to counter OpenAi's ChatGPT, Meta's Llama, and Nvidia's NVLM models) essentially giving away powerful technology for free. This isn’t an act of generosity—it’s a calculated move to increase its influence in regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. By making these tools widely available, China ensures that its technology becomes the backbone of innovation in many parts of the world, much like its infrastructure investments through the Belt and Road Initiative.
China has been aggressively releasing open-source AI tools, like DeepSeek's R1, Alibaba's Qwen 2.5-Max, and Huawei's PanGu 5.0, (to counter OpenAi's ChatGPT, Meta's Llama, and Nvidia's NVLM models) essentially giving away powerful technology for free. This isn’t an act of generosity—it’s a calculated move to increase its influence in regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. By making these tools widely available, China ensures that its technology becomes the backbone of innovation in many parts of the world, much like its infrastructure investments through the Belt and Road Initiative.
The U.S. and Japan’s Countermove:
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Japan have joined forces to offer an alternative. Companies like OpenAI are partnering with Japanese giants like SoftBank to build a regional AI hub that rivals China’s influence. This isn’t just about tech—it’s about shaping alliances and ensuring that countries in Asia and Southeast Asia don’t become too dependent on Chinese systems.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Japan have joined forces to offer an alternative. Companies like OpenAI are partnering with Japanese giants like SoftBank to build a regional AI hub that rivals China’s influence. This isn’t just about tech—it’s about shaping alliances and ensuring that countries in Asia and Southeast Asia don’t become too dependent on Chinese systems.
Why the Chaos Feels Different:
Unlike previous power struggles (like the Cold War), this isn’t about tanks and missiles—it’s about who controls the tools that will shape the future: AI. And unlike the hierarchies of the past, AI is fundamentally decentralized. Open-source tools, smaller nations, and independent developers are making it impossible for any one power to dominate completely. This decentralization is creating a kind of "Mongolian horde" effect, where smaller, faster-moving players can surround and outmaneuver larger, more centralized systems.
Unlike previous power struggles (like the Cold War), this isn’t about tanks and missiles—it’s about who controls the tools that will shape the future: AI. And unlike the hierarchies of the past, AI is fundamentally decentralized. Open-source tools, smaller nations, and independent developers are making it impossible for any one power to dominate completely. This decentralization is creating a kind of "Mongolian horde" effect, where smaller, faster-moving players can surround and outmaneuver larger, more centralized systems.
2. The Mongol Horde of AI
Here’s where the Mongol horde analogy comes in. The Mongols didn’t conquer vast empires by relying on rigid hierarchies or slow-moving armies. They succeeded because they were decentralized, highly adaptable, and fast-moving. They could surround larger, more hierarchical forces, outflanking them before they had time to respond.
AI is developing in much the same way. While big players like the U.S. and China are trying to control it, smaller nations, companies, and even individual developers are leveraging open-source tools to innovate at lightning speed. This creates a swarm-like effect: no matter how much one power tries to dominate, the sheer number of decentralized innovators ensures that no one can hold control for long.
3. Why the Hierarchical Model No Longer Works
The chaos we’re seeing now is partly because the old, hierarchical models of power aren’t designed for a world shaped by AI. In the past, empires or corporations could dominate by hoarding resources or controlling supply chains. But AI’s decentralization makes that kind of dominance nearly impossible.
China’s Challenge:
China’s strength has always been its ability to centralize power, but the more it tries to dominate AI, the more it risks being outflanked by smaller, decentralized players using the very tools it’s sharing. Its open-source strategy spreads influence but also creates competition.
China’s strength has always been its ability to centralize power, but the more it tries to dominate AI, the more it risks being outflanked by smaller, decentralized players using the very tools it’s sharing. Its open-source strategy spreads influence but also creates competition.
The U.S. and Japan’s Adaptation:
The U.S.-Japan alliance is a recognition that collaboration, not centralization, is the key to competing in this new landscape. By offering alternatives to China’s technology and investing in regional ecosystems, they’re adapting to the decentralized nature of AI.
The U.S.-Japan alliance is a recognition that collaboration, not centralization, is the key to competing in this new landscape. By offering alternatives to China’s technology and investing in regional ecosystems, they’re adapting to the decentralized nature of AI.
4. What Does This Mean for the Rest of Us?
If you’re wondering what all this means for everyday people, here’s the big picture: AI is going to shape the future in ways as profound as the discovery of fire. But unlike fire, which was eventually shared freely among tribes, AI is still being fought over. The question isn’t just who controls it—it’s how it’s used.
A Tool for Progress or Power?
Like fire, AI can be a tool for progress—helping us solve global challenges like climate change and healthcare—or it can be a weapon of dominance, used to deepen inequalities or undermine freedoms. The difference will depend on how it’s shared, regulated, and developed.
Like fire, AI can be a tool for progress—helping us solve global challenges like climate change and healthcare—or it can be a weapon of dominance, used to deepen inequalities or undermine freedoms. The difference will depend on how it’s shared, regulated, and developed.
The Risk of Turmoil:
The chaos we’re seeing today is part of this transition. As the U.S., China, Japan, and others vie for influence, smaller players are seizing opportunities to innovate and disrupt. This creates turbulence but also ensures that no single power can dominate.
The chaos we’re seeing today is part of this transition. As the U.S., China, Japan, and others vie for influence, smaller players are seizing opportunities to innovate and disrupt. This creates turbulence but also ensures that no single power can dominate.
5. A New Way Forward
If Quest for Fire teaches us anything, it’s that the discovery of a transformative tool is only the beginning. The real challenge lies in learning how to use it responsibly. And if the Mongols teach us anything, it’s that adaptability and decentralization often win over rigid control.
So, maybe the chaos we’re seeing isn’t a sign that the world is falling apart—it’s a sign that we’re entering a new phase, where no one power can hold all the fire. Instead of trying to dominate, the real opportunity lies in collaborating, adapting, and sharing this new fire to benefit everyone.
Final Thought: Why the Old Rules Don’t Apply
In the end, the world isn’t just fighting over AI—it’s figuring out how to exist in a world where the old rules no longer apply. The hierarchical model of global domination doesn’t work in a decentralized, fast-moving world shaped by AI. Instead, the future belongs to those who embrace the chaos, adapt to the swarm, and learn to share the fire without letting it burn us all.